What effects the war in Ukraine has on Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo and what does it mean for the internal functioning of the countries?

Over the past decade, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been facing a major crisis stemming from growing internal political divisions. The steady weakening of the EU presence in the Balkans in recent years has made BiH even more vulnerable to the influences of the two main regional power centers – Belgrade and Zagreb – as well as other geopolitical actors, especially the USA, Russia, Türkiye, and China, as well as Iran and the Arab States of the Persian Gulf.

Without credible external encouragement from the EU, the lack of trust in the vision of local politicians can play a significant role in weakening democracy in North Macedonia. The Western Balkans remains one of the most vulnerable targets in the ongoing battle for influence. The region is a central target of Russian influence, which intensified after the invasion of Ukraine last year. The region proves to be a fertile ground for political and societal influence, disinformation, and corrosive capital due to the various levels of state and media captivity, ethnic tensions within and between states, and the history of Russian cognitive bias. 

The Czech Republic’s disinformation scene consisted mainly of alternative online outlets spreading disinformation and conspiracies in the past, roughly until the Covid-19 pandemic. They were mostly non-transparent, by default hiding and obfuscating their ownership structure, contributors, and financing. However, this scene has diversified significantly in recent years due to the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and domestic political and economic developments. It now also consists of civil movements of "freedom fighters," influencers, celebrities, far-right/left politicians and individuals who began to engage in the disinformation discourse for their personal interest, for example to cover their debts or enter politics. 

Recent developments in Croatia have indicated a growing Turkish impact in the region, posing a significant threat to the European Union’s efforts to expand its influence in southeastern Europe. Turkey’s neo-ottoman foreign policy, under president recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has focused on the Western Balkans, including Croatia, as a primary area of interest. This multi-pronged approach includes spreading its political, economic, and cultural influence in Croatia, the youngest EU member state.

Since the mid-2000s, Serbia has strived to position itself as the leading actor in the Western Balkans. To a large extent, regardless of its international reputation, Belgrade tried to imitate the foreign policy of socialist Yugoslavia, based on the balancing of power between East and West, which aimed at both military-political protection and obtaining economic aid from both sides.

Albania has found itself in the middle of the political “chessboard” created by the most influential external actors after the EU and the USA, namely, Russia, China, Türkiye, and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. The study explores Albania’s multifaceted attitudes within the context of the dynamics in the Western Balkans and sheds light on how the Open Balkan (OB) initiative has shaped relations among the Western Balkan countries.

This study analyses the effects of foreign influence on political and social life in North Macedonia, focusing on the impact of the prolonged EU integration process, as opposed to the influence excreted by non-western actors, particularly Russia, China, Türkiye, and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

This study analyses the external influence in Kosovo and how these influences manifest in the political, economic, and social realms. The report contends that the historical context in which Kosovo emerged as a state has determined how external influence is perceived in the country.

This policy paper investigates the influence of Russia, China, Turkey, and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf on the process of (in)stability, including democratization, in Serbia from 2008 to 2022.