Bosnia and Herzegovina: Geopolitical Strife Fuels Local, Regional Crises

Srećko Latal / 27 Jun 2023

Over the past decade, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been facing a major crisis stemming from growing internal political divisions. The steady weakening of the EU presence in the Balkans in recent years has made BiH even more vulnerable to the influences of the two main regional power centers – Belgrade and Zagreb – as well as other geopolitical actors, especially the USA, Russia, Türkiye, and China, as well as Iran and the Arab States of the Persian Gulf.

This paper provides an overview of the divergent interests and activities of the key internal and external actors. It also explains the complicated political situation that has been established after the October 2022 elections and outlines key scenarios that may be developing in the near future in BiH and the rest of the region. Additionally, it offers a few key recommendations on how to halt and hopefully reverse the crisis in BiH and prevent new ethnic violence in the Balkans.

The analytical study was written as a part of PSSI's Western Balkans Project.